Future Scenarios - notes on Week 3

Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System

Loved this piece.

To recap for later:
12 Places to Intervene

  1. Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards).
  2. The sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows.
  3. The structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport networks, population age structures).
  4. The lengths of delays, relative to the rate of system change.
  5. The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against.
  6. The gain around driving positive feedback loops.
  7. The structure of information flows (who does and does not have access to information).
  8. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints).
  9. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure.
  10. The goals of the system.
  11. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises.
  12. The power to transcend paradigms.

From my understanding, these are ranked from most effective but hardest to implement. Is this true?

Trends and Critical Uncertainties

  • Trends

    • Machine learning and AI permeating through all technologies
    • The increasing armament of countries
    • Increasing global temperatures
  • Critical Uncertainties

    • Whether we will reach singularity
    • The geopolitical outcome in 5 years, any results of war
    • The effects of the melting ice caps in the poles

#Topics that would interest me

  • the results of continued migratory patterns on a geopolitical level
  • the results of the decreasing costs of alternative clean energy sources on fighting rising water temperatures