Future Scenarios - Notes on Week 2 Readings

Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids

  • The aha moment happens “when your message reaches the microcosms of decision makers, obliges them to question their assumptions about how their business world works, and leads them to change and reorganize their inner models of reality.”
  • “you want to use outside forces to your competitive advantage and make them work for you so that two plus two equals five or even more…Scenarios must help decision makers develop their own feel for the nature of the system, the forces at work within it, the uncertainties that underlie the alternative scenarios, and the concepts useful for interpreting key data.”
  • How can we research all of the elements at play? These Shell consultants seemed to specialize in economic data and thus did not leave a lot out…
  • Scenario planning is like getting a glimpse at all the possible alternate universes at once.
  • how do you determine if a force is more major than another?
  • “In times of rapid change, a crisis of perception (that is, the inability to see an emerging novel reality by being locked inside obsolete assumptions) often causes strategic failure”

Know Thy Futurist

  • lol – love this article.
  • i’ve known many of quadrant 1’s and 2’s in my day. i’ve also met a lot of quadrant 3’s and i have never liked them and didn’t know why… i hope i’m not one of them…